Our outlook for the first half of 2026 reflects a single posture: do less, and do it more carefully. The signal-to-noise ratio across crypto allocations is the worst it has been in three years.
We approach 2026 with a clearer view of risk than we have held since the second half of 2022. The conditions that justify a defensive posture have not abated; they have, on several measures, deepened.
Ether enters 2026 at approximately $2,800, down 18% from the October 2025 high. Bitcoin is similarly off its mid-cycle peak. We do not draw inferences from price action alone; we note it as one data point among several.
Staking yields have settled into a 3.0%–3.4% band that we expect to persist. Stablecoin yields above 5% remain durable, but the spread to traditional money markets has narrowed. The carry trade that defined 2024 is structurally less compelling.
We continue to flag concentration risk in liquid staking — Lido's share of staked ETH remains above 27% — and in stablecoin issuance. We do not currently see immediate triggers, but the structural exposures warrant prudence in sizing.
MiCA compliance has concluded. The US fiscal posture toward digital assets remains in flux. Swiss-resident clients with US ties, or US-resident heirs, face implementation questions that should not be resolved by waiting.
We will not increase ETH spot exposure on price action alone. We will not pursue restaking at scale in standard mandates. We will not allocate to any liquid staking token outside the four we currently track (stETH, rETH, cbETH, sfrxETH).
We will continue to allocate to cold storage at floor allocations of 14% across all mandates. We will continue to maintain stablecoin positions sized to provide twelve months of household operational liquidity. We will continue, where appropriate, to harvest tax positions before fiscal-year crystallisation events in jurisdictions where this is permitted.
Our central recommendation for the half is procedural rather than tactical: we will use Q1 to review and, where indicated, restructure estate and trust arrangements in light of MiCA finalisation and the H2 2025 changes to Swiss inheritance treatment of digital assets. We have begun reaching out to clients individually to schedule those conversations.
We will update this outlook at mid-year.